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Phil's Alerts



MTrader Class (C) copyright MTrader 

November 20, 2003
by Phil

[19:06] <Phi1l>  OK calyx wanted me to 'slain about the automated alerts a little ..
[19:06] <spar> no, dan is cleaner with all purpose formula 409
[19:06] <Phi1l>  so here goes..
[19:06] <Gimmie>  yippeee !!
[19:06] <mks> someone moderate room
[19:06] <spar> yaay...!
[19:06] <d> be good students, colleagues.
[19:06] <Phi1l>  .. in advance .. pardon the typing .. (i'm also trying to watch charts ;) )
[19:07] <carol> .
[19:07] <KenWolff>  LOL
[19:07] <catman> shoooooa
[19:07] <Phi1l>  I though I ad them set up to convey the most info in as little space a possible ..
[19:08] <Phi1l>  first in purple is the source of the alert, i. e. what script the alert came from ..
[19:09] <calyx> [12:20] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: SYMC OVERSOLD Alert Price = 52.22 : Actual Price = 31.14
[19:09] <calyx> I'll take care of the slides, phil
[19:09] <dan> lol
[19:09] <dan> teachers pet
[19:09] <Phi1l>  I now have it set up so I can have alerts generated from multiple alerts & identify what system geretatd the aleret...
[19:09] <Phi1l>  so that's what the purple is..
[19:10] <d> phil can not concentrate if we keep talking
[19:10] <Phi1l>  right now we just have the two .. the Swingers & the LongBall Portfolio ...
[19:10] <Phi1l>  I'll explain alittle more about those later ..
[19:11] <Phi1l>  .. in RED is the symbol ...
[19:12] <Phi1l>  in Green" is what the signal indicates..
[19:12] <calyx> [12:20] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: SYMC OVERSOLD Alert Price = 52.22 : Actual Price = 31.14
[19:13] <Phi1l>  either an enter consideration or exit alert due to profit target or stop ...
[19:14] <Phi1l>  .. then are the 2 prices the Alert or signal price, and the actual price when the alert was triggered..
[19:15] <Phi1l>  .. during the day those 2 should be reasonably close togeather, however, ..
[19:16] <Phi1l>  often alerts are triggered at the open when the price gaps way beynond the signal price, so I put both in to so the trader can judge if he/she really wants to do that one or not...
[19:17] <calyx> [12:53] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: OVTI LONG PROFIT TARGET Alert Price = 51.75 : Actual Price = 62.01
[19:17] <calyx> [12:53] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: OVTI LONG PROFIT TARGET Alert Price = 51.75 : Actual Price = 62.01
[19:17] <calyx> for example ^                                      ^
[19:17] <dan> phil , cna i ask a question for clearification?
[19:18] <Phi1l>  ya .. exactly .. also there arebad data points .. comparing the 2 can give a quick indication that the alert was actually rtiggered by bad data..
[19:18] <Phi1l>  .. go dan ...
[19:19] <calyx> [12:20] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: SYMC OVERSOLD Alert Price = 52.22 : Actual Price = 31.14
[19:19] <calyx> for example (bad data) ^
[19:19] <dan> what price do we use. i am still getting confused. for example this one OVTI......
[19:19] <dan> it already moved 10 points off alert
[19:20] <dan> so it is no good, right?
[19:20] <wiz> seems it has already done its gaining by that point
[19:21] <carol> SYMC split 2 for 1
[19:21] <Phi1l>  right dan, you have to use your discression .. the alerts are price sensitive so if the price has moved far from that alert price the potential of the trade is reduced by that amount ..
[19:22] <dan> oh shoot. did not notice OVTI was a profit target. sorry
[19:22] <Phi1l>  on the swingers the profit target is only 2% .. so if the price get 5% beyond the entry before you have a chance to get in, that alert isn't worth very much at that point ;)
[19:23] <d> that means you can buy at 51.75 or better on OVTI?
[19:23] <calyx> [12:53] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: OVTI LONG PROFIT TARGET Alert Price = 51.75 : Actual Price = 62.01
[19:23] <calyx> no, d
[19:23] <Phi1l>  anyother questions on the Alert format??
[19:24] <wiz> yeah...
[19:24] <d> calyx?
[19:24] <calyx> " LONG PROFIT TARGET "   is an exit from a previous this case OVTI was alerted as a long yesterday at a price of 50.69
[19:25] <wiz> what was the "buy" point with the OVTI example? 51.75?  with expectations of 52,78 as top?
[19:25] <d> thank you , now i undersatand calyx
[19:25] <wiz> 52.78 is 51.72 + 2%
[19:25] <dan> phil, when you gave us heads up on long balls this morning. the price you put was what our entry should have been?
[19:26] <wiz> previous alert?  what does that mean?
[19:26] <calyx> so, the profit target on OVTI was 52.78, yes wiz...but, built into all the Swingers is that you hold at least overnight...thus, much to your pleasure...not only did OVTI achieve +2% the following day, it opened at about +10
[19:26] <calyx> or about +20%
[19:26] <wiz> ok, sorry, I'm really slow here
[19:26] <wiz> <---totally confused
[19:26] <calyx> sorry to interrupt....
[19:26] <Phi1l>  wiz, the answer is there would be no swinger trade because the actual price(ie. where it gapped to) was so far from the trigger price..
[19:27] <wiz> sorry, n/m...go ahead, I'll get it later
[19:27] <calyx> is anyone else confused?  shall we do an example?
[19:28] <wiz> yeah, cal...but THIS time,
[19:28] <glenn> you would let that swinger go wiz, because the current price was so much higher than the alert price
[19:28] <d> yes, if you can.
[19:28] <Phi1l>  LOL .. OoH YA ..
[19:28] <wiz> don't start in the middle
[19:28] <wiz> start at the beginning
[19:28] <mks> glenn, wiz.. that was not a buy alert.. that was a sell alert
[19:28] <calyx> ok...phil, may I?
[19:28] <wiz> a wha huh?
[19:28] <Phi1l>  Let me explain the SWINGERs alittle first...
[19:28] <calyx> ok
[19:28] <d> ok
[19:29] <Phi1l>  .. so we will have an Idea just what we are talkign about ...
[19:29] <d> yes
[19:29] <glenn> you're right mks
[19:30] <Phi1l>  I fisrt got the idea for the SWINGERS when the NASD rules changed & day traders needed a minimum $25k protfolio ..
[19:31] <Phi1l>  what I was trying to do was find a system that would trigger high percentage over night trades...
[19:31] <Phi1l>  .. but also have as short a holding time as possible ..
[19:32] <Phi1l>  so .. I put a limit 5 day max holding time also ..
[19:33] <Phi1l>  with out going into too much detail on the specifics & tweaking ..
[19:34] <Phi1l>  I came up with to separate sytems .. on long & one short that are bacicly modified Keltner band violation systems ..
[19:35] <Phi1l>  that trigger signals when stocsk get very short term over bought or over sold..
[19:36] <Phi1l>  I really hesitate to call them actual buy or short reccomendations though because of teh short term nature of the signal ..
[19:37] <Phi1l>  .. just because a stock is over sold,doesn't mean it is going straight up from that point..
[19:38] <Phi1l>  .. judgement is still necessary to pick out good situations ... news, rumnor & inuendo can really drive pirces way beyond teh trigger price ..
[19:38] <Phi1l>  .. all that being said ...
[19:40] <Phi1l>  when I back tested the system over teh duration of the bubble years, on a purely machanical basis the performance was amazingly good..
[19:40] <Phi1l>  even teh shorts were profitable over that period....
[19:41] <Phi1l>  technical systems do not usually do as well on sorts as long, ...
[19:42] <Phi1l>  I think that's because good short ops. are really more random events & not really that predictable..
[19:43] <Phi1l>  anyway that's why I prever to use the OVRSOLD/OVERBOUGHT terminology .. as a reminder of jist what is being alerted ..;)
[19:44] <Phi1l>  Often teh SWINGER trades are good daytrade ops. as well .. .
[19:45] <Phi1l>  they are often stocsk that are "off the radar" but still provide good trades...
[19:47] <Phi1l>  calyx has been trading them foir awhile now generally following the original SWINGER criteria, .. he can tellyou more about how they have been doing & the details of what he is doing .. ;)
[19:48] <Phi1l>  generally though the the longs perforem quite well & the shorts are somewhat lower percentage as you would expect...
[19:49] <Eubac> and what are "LONG PROFIT TARGET"
[19:49] <Eubac> alerts
[19:50] <Phi1l>  that means the previously there was a Long trade Alerted for that stock & now the profit target for that trade has been reached..
[19:51] <calyx> [12:53] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: OVTI LONG PROFIT TARGET Alert Price = 51.75
[19:51] <wiz> phil...can you start at the beginning with how an alert is brought to our attention and the syntax of the alerts?
[19:52] <calyx> first let's ask phil if he is finished...???
[19:52] <calyx> explaining the origin and impetus for the swingers
[19:52] <Phi1l>  While the SWINGERS are really on the short term side of typical swing trade. the LONGBALL Portfolio is on the longe end ..
[19:52] <d> now is more clear
[19:53] <Phi1l>  you mean go thropugh an example, wiz???
[19:53] <wiz> yes sir...from start to finish?  please?
[19:54] <Eubac> I agree with calyx, let phil do an overall, maybe calyx will answer simpler questions
[19:54] <d> ok
[19:55] <Phi1l>  OK lets take the following example: ...
[19:55] <calyx> yes i will...i think if phil is finished explaining the Swingers, we should do an example, then move on to the long Ball...ok phil?
[19:55] <Phi1l>  [Nov 20 : 11:53] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: MRVL OVERSOLD Alert Price = 38.55 : Actual Price = 38.20
[19:55] <Phi1l>  dang .. I can't copy collor..
[19:55] <wiz> can't spell it, either!  :)
[19:55] <Phi1l>  or color either
[19:56] <wiz> lol
[19:56] <calyx> [09:32] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: CYD OVERSOLD Alert Price = 25.32 : Actual Price = 25.26
[19:56] <wiz> let calyx do it
[19:56] <wiz> superb
[19:56] <d> now colors, good
[19:56] <KenWolff>  cool
[19:57] <Phi1l>  k ..
[19:58] <Phi1l>  first in Purpleis "Swinger-Long" ... this alert wa generated buy the "swinger long" system
[20:00] <Phi1l>  so it will be either a long ebtry or possibly a sell signal
[20:00] <calyx> [09:32] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: CYD OVERSOLD Alert Price = 25.32 : Actual Price = 25.26
[20:00] <Phi1l>  then so it jumps out is the symbol, in htis case CYD ...
[20:02] <Phi1l>  OVERSOLD in green indicate that the sock has been wacked down short term & may be a good candidate for a quick rebound ..
[20:03] <Phi1l>  the alert price is 25.32 ... that is the price where teh stock can be considered oversold and the Alert was triggered ..
[20:03] <d> ok
[20:04] <Phi1l>  25.26 is teh actual price that triggered the alert, in this case the open price gapped under the trigger price by 0.06 ...
[20:06] <Phi1l>  so I would get it up on the a chart & watch jsut what it was doing.. it showed weakness at teh open so I would look for support & strength to actual take a position for a long trade ..
[20:07] <Phi1l>  calyx see dcc ;)
[20:07] <Phi1l>  cal .. is going to put in another alert to look at ...
[20:08] <Phi1l>  .. hopefully ..
[20:08] <calyx> hi
[20:08] <d> we are here
[20:08] <Phi1l>  hi ;)
[20:08] <Phi1l>  just a sec .. ;)
[20:09] <calyx> [12:53] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: OVTI LONG PROFIT TARGET Alert Price = 51.75 : Actual Price = 62.01
[20:09] <Phi1l>  calyx is fiddling with the sile projector ;)
[20:09] <Phi1l>  there ...
[20:10] <d> this i like
[20:10] <Phi1l>  here's anotehr Swinger-long alert .. this time for a LONG PROFIT TARGET signal ..
[20:11] <Phi1l>  that indicates that a long trade was signaled previosly an that now the profit target has been reached for that trade
[20:12] <d> now is clear
[20:13] <calyx> [12:53] <Phi1l> Swinger-Long ALERT: OVTI LONG PROFIT TARGET Alert Price = 51.75 : Actual Price = 62.01
[20:13] <Phi1l>  the actual profit target was 51.75, & the price at teh open gapped way up to 62.01 .. & everyone that was in that trade is now doing the snoopy dance .. ;)
[20:13] <wiz> lol
[20:15] <Phi1l>  I might mention that the if a trade is triggeres in the SWINGERs, a profit target is not generated until the next day because of the original over night limitation of the Swingers..
[20:15] <wiz> ahhh, yes
[20:15] <wiz> of course
[20:15] <wiz> hey, phil?
[20:16] <Phi1l>  day traders woould have mostlikely taken profits on OVTI yesterday ...with much more than the +2% profit target ..
[20:16] <Phi1l>  .. & hten be ddoging the hindsight whip today ;)
[20:17] <Phi1l>  dodging]
[20:17] <Phi1l>  .. is that clear now wiz??
[20:17] <mks> would u suggest trailing then
[20:18] <wiz> yes sir...and I have a favor to ask
[20:18] <Phi1l>  gooo..
[20:19] <wiz> would you consider doing the long ball thang another day?  so I/we can digest this much today?  (ignoring the boos and catcalls from the audience)
[20:19] <Phi1l>  roflol ..
[20:20] <calyx> no wiz, we should do as much as phil is willing to share
[20:20] <calyx> it'll be emailed out amd you can chew at your own speed
[20:20] <wiz> 10-4, bring it on...thank god for emailed classes
[20:20] <mks> noooooo
[20:20] <mks> longball plzzzzzzzz
[20:20] <wiz> ok, ok, I'm sorry
[20:20] <mks> been waiting all this time for it...
[20:20] <Phi1l>  tell you what, I'll go over the LongBall now .. then you can review it in the class notes & on the soon to be up web page ;)
[20:20] <d> good
[20:20] <wiz> I thought he might want to get back to his room
[20:20] <calyx> any questions on the Swingers?
[20:21] <wiz> I'm here, speak on!!
[20:21] <calyx> he'll tell us when he has to go
[20:21] <calyx> sit down, shut up
[20:21] <calyx> lol
[20:21] <wiz> <---poking calyx in the eyeball
[20:22] * mks changes mode #mtclass moderated
[20:22] <Phi1l>  OK te LONGNBALL Portfolio Alerts are really on the longer side of the typical swing trade type systems..
[20:23] <Phi1l>  it is basicly the same as the SWINGERS, but uses a much longer time frame signal ...
[20:25] <Phi1l>  the LB signals are actually closer to actual buy signals than teh OVERSOLD signals though ... they are generated when a stock drops more than 25% under the 50DMA then crosses back over that level ..
[20:25] <calyx> [12:53] <Phi1l> Long Ball Portfolio ALERT: DRIV OVERSOLD Alert Price = 21.58 : Actual Price = 23.93
[20:25] <Phi1l>  the exit isc controlled by trailing stops
[20:26] <Phi1l>  using a modified parabolic stop criteria ..
[20:26] <dan> so phil. this one. we really would not have played, right?
[20:26] <calyx> you could have gotten 21.80ish
[20:27] <Gimmie>  modified parabolic stop criteria
[20:27] <Phi1l>  ya you would have to use your own discression dan ..
[20:27] <dan> no you could not. it was already over 23
[20:28] <dan> ok
[20:28] <d> cleaver computer.
[20:28] <Phi1l>  on the LB winners the average is a whopping 75%+ average over 70days or so ..
[20:29] <Phi1l>  so teh potential is there on the LB signals to allow chasing..
[20:29] <Phi1l>  .. just remeber that chasing increase the loss risk if the trade goes the other way..
[20:30] <wiz> phil...2 quickie questions?
[20:30] <Phi1l>  .. just a sec..
[20:30] <wiz> sure, sorry
[20:30] <Phi1l>  post qs..
[20:32] <Phi1l>  k .. back ..
[20:33] <calyx> [12:53] <Phi1l> Long Ball Portfolio ALERT: DRIV OVERSOLD Alert Price = 21.58 : Actual Price = 23.93
[20:33] <Phi1l>  wiz??
[20:33] <calyx> ok...questions?
[20:33] <calyx> thanks phil, great job
[20:33] <mks> will the parabolic stops.. be posted.. as alerts
[20:33] <Phi1l>  ya mks ..
[20:34] <mks> ok thanks...
[20:34] <mks> great class..
[20:34] <Gimmie>  I think I have to digest this more before I can even come up with a question
[20:34] <spar> lol
[20:35] <spar> nice class, thanks phil
[20:35] <calyx> [12:53] <Phi1l> Long Ball Portfolio ALERT: DRIV OVERSOLD Alert Price = 21.58 : Actual Price = 23.93
[20:35] <Phi1l>  .. there was a little more I wanted to say about the LBs...
[20:35] <d> me to Gimmie
[20:35] <dan> phil, question
[20:35] <wiz> phil...normal trade alerts, non-long-ball...overnight to xxx timeframe?
[20:35] <mks> is there been a stop on a LB yet
[20:35] <wiz> ooops, sorry
[20:35] <Phi1l>  what do you mean "normal"
[20:36] <wiz> non longball
[20:36] <wiz> swingers
[20:36] <Phi1l>  you mean swingers??
[20:37] <wiz> yes
[20:37] <wiz> sorry
[20:37] <Phi1l>  Ahh ... ya 5 day max on the SWINGERss.
[20:37] <wiz> 10-4, tks
[20:37] <wiz> we get out at 2% or watch and react?
[20:38] <calyx> wiz, the day of the alert is day 0
[20:38] <mks> has there been a stop on a LB yet, just so i know how it looks like
[20:38] <calyx> yes mks
[20:39] <mks> ex?
[20:39] <Phi1l>  one very important thing to remember about the LBs is that the winning percentage is low about 33% or so but the profit potentail is large, & succesful trades last for quite a while, ..
[20:40] <calyx> it will look like this......  [12:19] <Phi1l> Long Ball ALERT: ERES LONG PROFIT TARGET Alert Price
[20:40] <Phi1l>  while the loosing trades stop out much quicker & the losses per trade are small ..
[20:40] <calyx> so, read them carefully
[20:40] <wiz> meaning...what?
[20:41] <calyx> c'mon wiz, we've been over this idea
[20:41] <Phi1l>  so I really call it a portfolio because you will normally be holding a portfolio oif successful trades that last for as long as they run ..
[20:42] <mks> i like that idea..
[20:42] <wiz> cool
[20:42] <calyx> lower number of winners means for the system to be successful, the size of the individual winners must be BIG
[20:42] <mks> phil..  so 7 out of 10 trades will lose.. small amounts
[20:42] <calyx> yes
[20:42] <mks> but 3 will run as long as they are good
[20:42] <Phi1l>  ya MKS..
[20:42] <calyx> bingo
[20:42] <wiz> and the other 3 will more than make up for the 7?
[20:43] <calyx> ...and back testing tells phil, the system is a winner overall, so much so that he has been kind enough to share it with us
[20:43] <Phi1l>  ya much more ..
[20:43] <wiz> oh my...well, pass the Vallium and let 'er rip
[20:44] <d> good idea Phil
[20:44] <Phi1l>  300%-400%+ profits over 6 mo. or so are not all that unusual
[20:44] <mks> that sounds better than daytrading for me...
[20:45] <wiz> compunded, that's 900-1600% annually
[20:45] <Phi1l>  .. hence teh name longball .. most home run hitters have low batting average ... ;)
[20:46] <wiz> do we read about your LB's on your web page or what?
[20:46] <mks> phil.. u mentioned that u have to put fewer stocks..
[20:46] <Phi1l>  ya they will be there soon ;)
[20:46] <mks> in the port...
[20:46] <mks> so are u counting the good ones.. as in the port..
[20:47] <mks> what i am trying to say. is that once u enter a LB trade... its counted as a keeper after if goes in the right direction
[20:48] <calyx> wiz, you are not doing that math right, if i may be so bold
[20:48] <calyx> [14:44] <Phi1l>  300%-400%+ profits over 6 mo. or so are not all that unusual
[20:49] <calyx> he means for 1 Long Ball position
[20:49] <Phi1l>  ya .. the best strategy with LBs is to concentrate on fewer trades .. staying in the few winners while stopping out on the loosers quickly & trying again for the winners..
[20:49] <d> yes
[20:49] <mks> calyx, has a system of playing the swingers... 3% of port in every position...
[20:49] <mks> can the same be applied to this LB system
[20:50] <Phi1l>  Ok .. I think I'm done now ;)
[20:50] <mks> thnks Phi1l
[20:50] <d> thanks Phil
[20:50] <calyx> {clap clap clap}
[20:50] <calyx> thanks Phil!!
[20:50] <Phi1l>  ;)
[20:50] <KenWolff>  great class phil..
[20:50] <Gregory> Thanks Phil
[20:50] <Phi1l>  you're all welcome .. & thx for you patience with the lisdexic typing ;)
[20:50] <KenWolff>  class A+,,, Phils typing D-
[20:51] <catman> Fine work indeed Filup!!!
[20:51] [dan SOUND]
[20:51] <calyx> mks...
[20:52] <calyx> recorded earlier ; ) ...
[20:52] <wiz> the Olympic judges have reached a decision, phil:
[20:52] <calyx> ..[16:16] <Phi1l>  I would say of the amount you want to tie up long term 15%-20%..[16:16] <Phi1l>  per position ..[16:17] <Phi1l>  .. that is because while teh winning percentage is relatively low, when you are in a winning position it will last for quite a while ..
[20:52] <wiz> clarity: 9.7    spelling: 8.3   information content:  9.8    colors:  10.0
[20:52] <Eubac> just wonderful, phil
[20:52] <d> you have a system calyx?
[20:52] <d> for swingers?
[20:52] <mks> onslaught of q's on calyx
[20:52] <Phi1l>  thx Eubac ;)
[20:53] <calyx> lol
[20:53] <KenWolff>  when I grow up I wanna be like Phil...
[20:53] <jorosv> bravo Phil
[20:53] <wiz> calyx, you better turn off yer dcc real quick, bro
[20:53] <wiz> thanks a zillion, phillion
[20:53] <Gimmie>  Thanks Phil !!!!!!!!
[20:53] <mks> calyx.. expand on the cut and paste.. plz
[20:53] <calyx> ok, let the ambush begin...I'd prefer the Kung Fu movie still...where i take one attacker on at atime while the others sulk around menacingly waiting their turn ; 0
[20:53] <calyx> style
[20:53] <d> we give him a chocholate
[20:53] <Gimmie>  :-)
[20:53] <d> to Phil I mean
[20:54] <wiz> good reward, d
[20:54] <Gimmie>  we shoud give calyx one too d
[20:54] <wiz> yeah
[20:54] <d> well...
[20:54] <d> calyx didn't answer my question
[20:54] <wiz> don't give him his chocolate til he answers, d
[20:55] <d> no, for sue
[20:55] <d> sure
[20:55] <calyx> hang on
[20:55] <d> i have them under key
[20:56] <Phi1l>  cya all laert of some where else ... I have the MS Agent reading me the text of these channels & I can only follow 2 conversations at a time ...
[20:56] <Phi1l>  later
[20:56] <wiz> bye
[20:56] <d> bye
[20:56] <catman> thanks again Phil
[20:56] <d> good lesson
[20:57] <calyx> ok, d
[20:57] <wiz> ok, I gotta run too...y'all take care, seeya tomorrow
[20:57] <calyx> you asked about my system for the Swingers
[20:57] <calyx> c ya wiz bang
[20:57] <d> do you have one?
[20:57] <calyx> yes
[20:58] <d> is easy to use?
[20:58] <calyx> as much as you can have a "system" for trading
[20:58] <calyx> I follow Phil's alerts
[20:58] <d> if you find it interesting will you share one day with us?
[20:58] <calyx> I allocate a calculated % of my "Swinger Portfolio" to each
[20:59] <calyx> I have tracked them since their inception last October
[20:59] <d> do they work?
[20:59] <calyx> yes
[20:59] <d> that is good
[20:59] <calyx> Gregory actually has the most recent stats...he has been tracking since 10/27
[21:00] <calyx> I tracked for 6 months to reach my own conclusions
[21:00] <d> is a lot of research in here i see
[21:00] <calyx> yes
[21:00] <calyx> i put my time in, i like that kinda stuff
[21:00] <catman> and your conclusion was.........................????
[21:01] <calyx> ..hmm...will you be posting tomorrow catman?
[21:01] <calyx> ; )
[21:01] <d> that is good, the market is changing , we have to addapt.
[21:01] <catman> what the devil does that have to do with yur conclusion?
[21:01] <calyx> i dunno..just wonderin
[21:01] <catman> oh
[21:01] <calyx> lol
[21:01] <KenWolff>  don't bring the devil into this
[21:02] <calyx> well, ya know, i scratch yers...
[21:02] <KenWolff>  he is busy ...
[21:02] <d> they do not get the chocolate, Ken
[21:02] <mks> no i am not
[21:02] <catman> sorry forgot about the church/state thing
[21:02] <mks> losing focus class :)
[21:02] <catman> lol
[21:03] <calyx> mks, your question was what?
[21:03] <mks> expand on the money mgmt... which u posted...
[21:03] <mks> lets take a hypothecal.. port of 5k
[21:03] <calyx> well, let's think...what'd phil tell me?
[21:04] <catman> take it where  mks?
[21:04] <mks> hmm...
[21:04] <calyx> ..[16:16] <Phi1l>  I would say of the amount you want to tie up long term 15%-20%..per position ... that is because while the winning percentage is relatively low, when you are in a winning position it will last for quite a while ..
[21:05] <calyx> you take it from there, mks
[21:05] <mks> imagine 20% of position in each LB trade...
[21:05] <mks> oh ok..
[21:05] <calyx> so, how many positions do you think are open at the same time?
[21:05] <mks> thanks ...
[21:05] <calyx> on average...?
[21:06] <mks> i dunno... how many are issued?
[21:06] <calyx> answer: 5-7 ....  {100% /  15-20%)
[21:06] <calyx> I don't think you would ever calc with margin
[21:06] <mks> my confusion was.. if there only 3 to be kept of the 10
[21:07] <calyx> you can't think as if it is a one time deal, man, it is rolling, you will constantly get entries and exits...rolling/real time
[21:07] <calyx>'s a little more on them
[21:08] <catman> wasn't that a Tina Turner song?
[21:08] <mks> so if u put 15% on each.. u will not have enough capital to try the rolling... 10
[21:08] <calyx> we said...7 of 10 get stopped
[21:08] <calyx> phil said average stop was -10%
[21:08] <calyx> so, what do the winning 3 have to yield per position?
[21:08] <mks> atleast 70%
[21:08] <calyx> per position...
[21:09] <calyx> 70/3
[21:09] <calyx> +23%
[21:09] <calyx> just to make the system a winner overall
[21:09] <mks> yes
[21:09] <calyx> ok...and his point is that if you can diecern the winners, those 3 make .... <Phi1l>  300%-400%+ profits over 6 mo. or so are not all that unusual
[21:10] <calyx> discern
[21:11] <calyx> so, call it 900% from 3 winners, -70% from 7 losers
[21:11] <calyx> +830% of your average Long Ball %
[21:11] <mks> not bad...
[21:12] <mks> thanks calyx
[21:12] <mks> OPlk diving...
[21:13] <calyx> so, say you put 10% of your port into each...say $500 on a 5k make $500*830% = $4150 in 6 months
[21:13] <calyx> so, almost double total port after 6 months!!
[21:13] <calyx> got me?
[21:14] <mks> yeah...
[21:14] <calyx> = good system even though 7 of 10 get stopped
[21:14] <calyx> any other questions anyone??
[21:14] <calyx> let it sink in, get me any time
[21:14] <calyx> i'm always here
[21:14] <mks> thanks calyx.. for all ur help
[21:14] <calyx> rock on



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